India's economic affairs department on Friday cautioned against disruptions due to the imposition of a one-time fee of $100,000 for all future H-1B visas, and said it was a "reminder of risks of trade uncertainties affecting the hitherto unaffected services sector".
For now, the risks appear manageable, but they are there, it added.
The U.S. recently raised H-1B visa fees to USD 100,000 for new visas, from the earlier USD 1,500-4,000 range. The change does not affect existing visa holders or renewals, but could weigh heavily on Indian IT companies' dependent on new on-site visas.
Growth in India's IT services exports could slow to below 4 per cent due to fresh risks from the sharp hike in H-1B visa fees, according to a report by Emkay.
The report noted that it had earlier estimated 5 per cent growth in FY26 and a 7 per cent CAGR over the next five years.
It stated, "Indian IT/software gross/net exports stood USD 181bn/160bn in FY25 and we had assumed 5 per cent growth in net IT services exports for FY26E, with a 7 per cent CAGR growth for next 5 yrs. This could reduce to sub-4 per cent depending on sustained H1B visa-led risks and GCC evolution".
India's IT and software exports stood at USD 181 billion gross and USD 160 billion net in FY25. Global capability centres (GCCs) already contribute more than USD 65 billion in gross exports.
The report noted that GCC evolution and adoption of new growth models by IT firms will be key in shaping the sector's outlook.
As per experts the near-term impact on revenues and margins may remain limited. However, if the higher fees sustain, it could disturb traditional export models.
For now, the risks appear manageable, but they are there, it added.
The U.S. recently raised H-1B visa fees to USD 100,000 for new visas, from the earlier USD 1,500-4,000 range. The change does not affect existing visa holders or renewals, but could weigh heavily on Indian IT companies' dependent on new on-site visas.
Growth in India's IT services exports could slow to below 4 per cent due to fresh risks from the sharp hike in H-1B visa fees, according to a report by Emkay.
The report noted that it had earlier estimated 5 per cent growth in FY26 and a 7 per cent CAGR over the next five years.
It stated, "Indian IT/software gross/net exports stood USD 181bn/160bn in FY25 and we had assumed 5 per cent growth in net IT services exports for FY26E, with a 7 per cent CAGR growth for next 5 yrs. This could reduce to sub-4 per cent depending on sustained H1B visa-led risks and GCC evolution".
India's IT and software exports stood at USD 181 billion gross and USD 160 billion net in FY25. Global capability centres (GCCs) already contribute more than USD 65 billion in gross exports.
The report noted that GCC evolution and adoption of new growth models by IT firms will be key in shaping the sector's outlook.
As per experts the near-term impact on revenues and margins may remain limited. However, if the higher fees sustain, it could disturb traditional export models.
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