American Express bets on holiday spending by affluent customers to update 2025 forecasts

American Express raised the lower end of its 2025 profit and revenue forecasts on Wednesday as its affluent customers looked past economic uncertainty and continued spending ahead of the holiday season.

Analysts expect AmEx to benefit from spending by high-income customers, particularly on travel and luxury purchases, during Christmas, Black Friday and Cyber Monday holidays as retailers lure them with discounts.

Its focus on premium cardholders could help the credit card company navigate economic uncertainty while capturing a bigger share of consumer payments through the end of the year.

AmEx now expects earnings per share between $15.20 and $15.50 for the year ended December 31, compared with its prior expectations of $15 to $15.50. Revenue in 2025 is expected to grow between 9% and 10% compared with prior forecast of 8% to 10%.

Spending holds up
Higher-income consumers are yet to cut back on spending, with most still planning holidays, buying big-ticket discretionary items, shielding AmEx from the broader slowdown in the payments sector.

"Card Member spend growth accelerated to 8% on an FX-adjusted basis, and our credit metrics remained best-in-class," CEO Stephen Squeri said in a statement.

AmEx's quarterly revenue jumped 11% to a record $18.4 billion in the third quarter. It posted profit of $4.14 per share compared with $3.49 a year ago.

While some credit risks are emerging among lower-income borrowers, there is broad consensus among the nation's largest lenders that the U.S. consumer remains unexpectedly resilient.

AmEx is less exposed to stress, as its business remains focused on cardholders with the highest FICO scores, reflecting minimal credit risk.

Consolidated provisions for credit losses stood at $1.3 billion in the quarter, compared with $1.4 billion a year ago.