India's foreign policy has long been defined by strategic autonomy and multilateral engagement. This stance has become more visible amid growing global polarisations due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Recent developments surrounding Russian oil have thrown India’s nuanced energy diplomacy into sharp relief.
During a White House event, Trump alleged that Modi had promised to stop oil imports from Russia, adding that the process would take time but was underway. However, within hours, India's MEA dismissed the claim unequivocally, stating that no such telephonic exchange took place. Furthermore, the ministry emphasized that India’s energy import policy is driven by national interest and consumer needs, not external pressure.
This swift and categorical rebuttal underscores two key elements of India's foreign policy: its commitment to factual diplomacy, and its resistance to being drawn into great power rivalries in a way that could harm its economic stability or strategic autonomy.
And yet, India's energy diplomacy remains pragmatic. The ongoing trade talks between India and the US have also increased American pressure on India on Russian oil purchases. US negotiators have said curbing its Russian crude purchases would be crucial to reducing India's tariff rate and sealing a trade deal. "The current (US) administration has shown interest in deepening energy cooperation with India. Discussions are ongoing," Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said in a recent statement, indicating that India's oil purchase could be a bargaining chip.
Without submitting to coercion, India has already been diversifying its oil sources away from Russia, partly because Russian discounts thinned. India has also been increasing its oil purchase from the US and is likely to continue to do that. India's sharp oil-buying game reflects a mature, confident and strategically autonomous foreign policy which tries to balance relationships with the US, Russia and other key energy partners.
India's oil trade
India is the world's third-largest oil-importing and consuming country. It imports 87 per cent of its about 5.5 million barrels per day of crude oil consumption. Russia is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of crude oil. Traditionally, India bought two-thirds of all its crude oil from the Middle East countries, such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. India turned to purchasing Russian oil sold at a discount after Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow and shunned its supplies over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Consequently, from a mere 1.7 per cent share in total oil imports in 2019-20 (FY20), Russia's share increased to 40 per cent in 2023-24, and it is now the biggest oil supplier to India. In terms of volume, India imported 88 million tonnes from Russia in FY25, out of the total shipment of 245 million tonnes. The primary reason driving the Russian oil buy was the discounts relative to other internationally traded crude oil. Discounts topped USD 19-20 per barrel in 2023, but have since shrunk to USD 3.5-5 per barrel.
India's crude imports in September were around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 2,20,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year. Russian crude maintained its position as the largest single supplier, contributing about 1.6 million bpd - a 34 per cent share. However, this was roughly 1,60,000 bpd below the average Russian volumes imported during the first eight months of 2025, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed. In the first half of October, Russian oil supplies were at 1.77 million bpd. Iraq was the second biggest crude oil supplier to India at around 1.01 million bpd, followed by Saudi Arabia at 8,30,000 bpd. The US has overtaken the UAE to become India's fourth largest supplier with 647,000 bpd. UAE supplied 394,000 bpd.
Is India cutting Russian oil imports?
Some Indian refiners are preparing to cut Russian oil imports, sources told Reuters on Thursday, after U.S. President Donald Trump said India had given an assurance it would stop its buying to help end the war in Ukraine. Indian refiners are preparing to shift away from Russian oil, with a drop in purchases possible from December given orders for November have already been placed, the sources with knowledge of the matter said. Refiners have not been formally told by the government to stop buying Russian oil, the sources told Reuters.
Indian refiners can operate without supplies from Moscow from a technical standpoint, but the shift would involve major economic and strategic trade-offs, analysts said. Russian crude supports high distillate yields - the share of crude converted into fuels like petrol, diesel, and jet fuel through distillation. Replacing Russian crude, resulting in lower middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) and higher residue outputs. Deep discounts and strong compatibility with India's refining systems led to a surge in imports of Russian Ural crude oil.
Cutting off Russian supplies immediately is near impossible. Typically, oil is contracted 4-6 weeks prior to delivery, so the one that is being delivered now is what would have been contracted in early and mid-September. Deliveries for at least till the end of November have already been contracted.
However, Bloomberg reported recently that Indian refiners are expected to boost oil imports from Russia in the coming months, as trade talks with Washington drag on and discounts widen amid ample supplies. Discounts on Urals crude loading in November are $2-to-$2.50 a barrel to Dated Brent, making it attractive, according to people familiar with the developments. That’s cheaper than discounts of about $1 a barrel in July-to-August, when supplies were tight due to Moscow’s prioritizing local customers.
A phased withdrawal from buying Russian crude over the next 2-3 months is unlikely to roil global oil markets, with prices likely to rise only $2-3 a barrel, refinery executives have told ET. However, such a move would squeeze domestic refiners as they lose Russian discounts of around $2 a barrel and pay more for replacement supplies, they noted. Private refiners would be hit harder if they have to switch away from Russian oil. Sanctions-hit Nayara Energy, which is fully dependent on Russian crude, may struggle to maintain operations, while Reliance Industries, which sources about half its crude from Russia, will face higher procurement costs, executives said. State-run refiners have already slashed the share of Russian crude to about 20% of their intake, diversifying supplies.
If Indian refiners are forced to replace Russian barrels, they plan to tap the spot market for supplies from the US, UAE and Brazil, where cargoes are available.
India's willingness to buy more US oil
According to Kpler, India can import more from the US, but the upside is capped at around 4,00,000-5,00,000 bpd. India has limited upside, due to US grades facing both logistical disadvantages, economic and compatibility challenges with Indian refining systems, which makes a material swing toward American crude unlikely. Though Indian refiners continue to diversify and try to get cargoes that suit the economics, Kpler data shows Indian imports of US crude have averaged 310 kbd so far in 2025, an increase from 199 kbd in 2024, hitting a yearly high of approx 500 kbd (Expected in October).
India has the capacity to purchase an additional $15 billion of oil from the US, a senior commerce ministry official said Wednesday, signaling New Delhi’s intent to speed up trade talks and get a deal. Data over the last few years shows that energy purchases from the US have gone up, India’s Trade Secretary Rajesh Agrawal told reporters on Wednesday in New Delhi. “Right now we are at an average of $12-$13 billion as per FY25 figures and there is headroom for $14-$15 billion” more with the current refinery configuration, he said. The move could bridge the $42.7 billion trade surplus India enjoys and assuage Trump.
Two Indian refiners have bought 4 million barrels of Guyanese crude oil from U.S. major Exxon Mobil to be delivered at end-2025 or in early 2026, in their first imports from the South American producer, trade sources told Reuters on Friday. Indian Oil Corp, the country's largest refiner by capacity, has bought 2 million barrels of Golden Arrowhead crude, which will arrive in late December or in early January, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Another refiner, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, has bought 2 million barrels of Liza and Unity Gold crude, also for delivery during the same period, the sources said.
India's oil-buying game stays sharp as it tries to balance various interests while it keeps its own at the centre. If India successfully manages the various pressures, it will set a standard of multilateral diplomacy for many other countries in today's highly polarised world order.
(With inputs from agencies)
During a White House event, Trump alleged that Modi had promised to stop oil imports from Russia, adding that the process would take time but was underway. However, within hours, India's MEA dismissed the claim unequivocally, stating that no such telephonic exchange took place. Furthermore, the ministry emphasized that India’s energy import policy is driven by national interest and consumer needs, not external pressure.
This swift and categorical rebuttal underscores two key elements of India's foreign policy: its commitment to factual diplomacy, and its resistance to being drawn into great power rivalries in a way that could harm its economic stability or strategic autonomy.
And yet, India's energy diplomacy remains pragmatic. The ongoing trade talks between India and the US have also increased American pressure on India on Russian oil purchases. US negotiators have said curbing its Russian crude purchases would be crucial to reducing India's tariff rate and sealing a trade deal. "The current (US) administration has shown interest in deepening energy cooperation with India. Discussions are ongoing," Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said in a recent statement, indicating that India's oil purchase could be a bargaining chip.
Without submitting to coercion, India has already been diversifying its oil sources away from Russia, partly because Russian discounts thinned. India has also been increasing its oil purchase from the US and is likely to continue to do that. India's sharp oil-buying game reflects a mature, confident and strategically autonomous foreign policy which tries to balance relationships with the US, Russia and other key energy partners.
India's oil trade
India is the world's third-largest oil-importing and consuming country. It imports 87 per cent of its about 5.5 million barrels per day of crude oil consumption. Russia is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of crude oil. Traditionally, India bought two-thirds of all its crude oil from the Middle East countries, such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. India turned to purchasing Russian oil sold at a discount after Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow and shunned its supplies over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Consequently, from a mere 1.7 per cent share in total oil imports in 2019-20 (FY20), Russia's share increased to 40 per cent in 2023-24, and it is now the biggest oil supplier to India. In terms of volume, India imported 88 million tonnes from Russia in FY25, out of the total shipment of 245 million tonnes. The primary reason driving the Russian oil buy was the discounts relative to other internationally traded crude oil. Discounts topped USD 19-20 per barrel in 2023, but have since shrunk to USD 3.5-5 per barrel.
India's crude imports in September were around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 2,20,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year. Russian crude maintained its position as the largest single supplier, contributing about 1.6 million bpd - a 34 per cent share. However, this was roughly 1,60,000 bpd below the average Russian volumes imported during the first eight months of 2025, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed. In the first half of October, Russian oil supplies were at 1.77 million bpd. Iraq was the second biggest crude oil supplier to India at around 1.01 million bpd, followed by Saudi Arabia at 8,30,000 bpd. The US has overtaken the UAE to become India's fourth largest supplier with 647,000 bpd. UAE supplied 394,000 bpd.
Is India cutting Russian oil imports?
Some Indian refiners are preparing to cut Russian oil imports, sources told Reuters on Thursday, after U.S. President Donald Trump said India had given an assurance it would stop its buying to help end the war in Ukraine. Indian refiners are preparing to shift away from Russian oil, with a drop in purchases possible from December given orders for November have already been placed, the sources with knowledge of the matter said. Refiners have not been formally told by the government to stop buying Russian oil, the sources told Reuters.
Indian refiners can operate without supplies from Moscow from a technical standpoint, but the shift would involve major economic and strategic trade-offs, analysts said. Russian crude supports high distillate yields - the share of crude converted into fuels like petrol, diesel, and jet fuel through distillation. Replacing Russian crude, resulting in lower middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) and higher residue outputs. Deep discounts and strong compatibility with India's refining systems led to a surge in imports of Russian Ural crude oil.
Cutting off Russian supplies immediately is near impossible. Typically, oil is contracted 4-6 weeks prior to delivery, so the one that is being delivered now is what would have been contracted in early and mid-September. Deliveries for at least till the end of November have already been contracted.
However, Bloomberg reported recently that Indian refiners are expected to boost oil imports from Russia in the coming months, as trade talks with Washington drag on and discounts widen amid ample supplies. Discounts on Urals crude loading in November are $2-to-$2.50 a barrel to Dated Brent, making it attractive, according to people familiar with the developments. That’s cheaper than discounts of about $1 a barrel in July-to-August, when supplies were tight due to Moscow’s prioritizing local customers.
A phased withdrawal from buying Russian crude over the next 2-3 months is unlikely to roil global oil markets, with prices likely to rise only $2-3 a barrel, refinery executives have told ET. However, such a move would squeeze domestic refiners as they lose Russian discounts of around $2 a barrel and pay more for replacement supplies, they noted. Private refiners would be hit harder if they have to switch away from Russian oil. Sanctions-hit Nayara Energy, which is fully dependent on Russian crude, may struggle to maintain operations, while Reliance Industries, which sources about half its crude from Russia, will face higher procurement costs, executives said. State-run refiners have already slashed the share of Russian crude to about 20% of their intake, diversifying supplies.
If Indian refiners are forced to replace Russian barrels, they plan to tap the spot market for supplies from the US, UAE and Brazil, where cargoes are available.
India's willingness to buy more US oil
According to Kpler, India can import more from the US, but the upside is capped at around 4,00,000-5,00,000 bpd. India has limited upside, due to US grades facing both logistical disadvantages, economic and compatibility challenges with Indian refining systems, which makes a material swing toward American crude unlikely. Though Indian refiners continue to diversify and try to get cargoes that suit the economics, Kpler data shows Indian imports of US crude have averaged 310 kbd so far in 2025, an increase from 199 kbd in 2024, hitting a yearly high of approx 500 kbd (Expected in October).
India has the capacity to purchase an additional $15 billion of oil from the US, a senior commerce ministry official said Wednesday, signaling New Delhi’s intent to speed up trade talks and get a deal. Data over the last few years shows that energy purchases from the US have gone up, India’s Trade Secretary Rajesh Agrawal told reporters on Wednesday in New Delhi. “Right now we are at an average of $12-$13 billion as per FY25 figures and there is headroom for $14-$15 billion” more with the current refinery configuration, he said. The move could bridge the $42.7 billion trade surplus India enjoys and assuage Trump.
Two Indian refiners have bought 4 million barrels of Guyanese crude oil from U.S. major Exxon Mobil to be delivered at end-2025 or in early 2026, in their first imports from the South American producer, trade sources told Reuters on Friday. Indian Oil Corp, the country's largest refiner by capacity, has bought 2 million barrels of Golden Arrowhead crude, which will arrive in late December or in early January, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Another refiner, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, has bought 2 million barrels of Liza and Unity Gold crude, also for delivery during the same period, the sources said.
India's oil-buying game stays sharp as it tries to balance various interests while it keeps its own at the centre. If India successfully manages the various pressures, it will set a standard of multilateral diplomacy for many other countries in today's highly polarised world order.
(With inputs from agencies)
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