Brace yourselves, this winter might feel different. Top weather experts are warning that La Niña, a climate phenomenon known for reshaping weather patterns worldwide, could make a comeback later this year and bring a chillier-than-usual season to India.
What is La Niña?
La Niña is the cooler phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It happens when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean dip below normal. While this might sound distant, the ripple effects are felt across the globe, from altering rainfall in the Americas to influencing cold waves in Asia. For India, La Niña winters usually mean more frost, harsher cold waves, and extra snow in the north.
The Forecast So Far
On 11 September, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Watch, saying there’s a 71% chance of La Niña forming between October and December 2025. The odds reduce slightly to 54% between December 2025 and February 2026, but the alert remains.
Back home, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also hinted at the possibility. Currently, conditions are neutral, neither El Niño nor La Niña, but IMD’s models suggest that La Niña could set in post-monsoon.
A senior IMD official said: “Our models show a good probability of La Niña developing during Oct–Dec this year (over 50%). La Niña is usually associated with colder winters in India. While climate change can balance this out to some extent, winters during La Niña years tend to be colder.”
Interestingly, he added that 2025 may not go down as one of the hottest years overall, as heavy monsoon rainfall has already cooled things a bit.
Private Forecasters Cautious, but Alert
Private forecaster Skymet Weather’s president, GP Sharma, is not ruling out a short-lived La Niña either. He explained that the Pacific Ocean is already cooler than usual, though it hasn’t yet crossed the La Niña threshold.
“If sea surface temperatures fall below -0.5°C anomalies and stay that way for at least three overlapping quarters, we officially declare La Niña,” he said. “We saw something similar in late 2024 when La Niña briefly appeared between November and January before turning neutral again.”
Sharma added that even without meeting the strict definitions, the cooling trend could still influence global weather. For India, that would likely mean sharper cold spells and more snow in the northern and Himalayan belt.
Science Backs the Chill Factor
A 2024 study by the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Mohali, along with Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research, found strong links between La Niña and severe cold waves in north India.
The researchers noted that during La Niña, a cyclonic anomaly at lower levels pulls icy winds from higher latitudes into India, increasing both the frequency and duration of cold wave events. In simple terms: La Niña winters pack a punch.
Inputs from TOI
What is La Niña?
La Niña is the cooler phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It happens when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean dip below normal. While this might sound distant, the ripple effects are felt across the globe, from altering rainfall in the Americas to influencing cold waves in Asia. For India, La Niña winters usually mean more frost, harsher cold waves, and extra snow in the north.
The Forecast So Far
On 11 September, the US Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Watch, saying there’s a 71% chance of La Niña forming between October and December 2025. The odds reduce slightly to 54% between December 2025 and February 2026, but the alert remains.
Back home, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also hinted at the possibility. Currently, conditions are neutral, neither El Niño nor La Niña, but IMD’s models suggest that La Niña could set in post-monsoon.
A senior IMD official said: “Our models show a good probability of La Niña developing during Oct–Dec this year (over 50%). La Niña is usually associated with colder winters in India. While climate change can balance this out to some extent, winters during La Niña years tend to be colder.”
Interestingly, he added that 2025 may not go down as one of the hottest years overall, as heavy monsoon rainfall has already cooled things a bit.
Private Forecasters Cautious, but Alert
Private forecaster Skymet Weather’s president, GP Sharma, is not ruling out a short-lived La Niña either. He explained that the Pacific Ocean is already cooler than usual, though it hasn’t yet crossed the La Niña threshold.
“If sea surface temperatures fall below -0.5°C anomalies and stay that way for at least three overlapping quarters, we officially declare La Niña,” he said. “We saw something similar in late 2024 when La Niña briefly appeared between November and January before turning neutral again.”
Sharma added that even without meeting the strict definitions, the cooling trend could still influence global weather. For India, that would likely mean sharper cold spells and more snow in the northern and Himalayan belt.
Science Backs the Chill Factor
A 2024 study by the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Mohali, along with Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research, found strong links between La Niña and severe cold waves in north India.
The researchers noted that during La Niña, a cyclonic anomaly at lower levels pulls icy winds from higher latitudes into India, increasing both the frequency and duration of cold wave events. In simple terms: La Niña winters pack a punch.
Inputs from TOI
You may also like
"Losing political integrity": BJP's Dilip Jaiswal hits out at Congress over AI-generated video, welcomes Patna HC order
Recruitment delay leaves nearly 8,000 guest lecturers running TN colleges
Ukraine, US launch fund for critical minerals projects
IND Vs PAK Asia Cup 2025 Super 4 Match: Will Suryakumar Yadav's Team Continue To Persist With No Handshake Policy Against Pakistan?
Breaking News Updates: Stay Informed with Real-Time Coverage
