'Act now' warning as Ryanair Spain cuts could add 30% to fares within weeks

Ryanair's decision to ditch key Spain routes and cut flight numbers to others may lead to a spike in ticket prices, according to one report.

This week, the budget airline confirmed it would be closing its Santiago de Compostela base and suspending flights from Vigo and Tenerife North. The company has stated that these extensive cuts are a reaction to Spain's airport operator Aena's announcement of a 6.5% increase in passenger fees by 2026.

Simultaneously, the airline will maintain the closure of their Valladolid and Jerez bases and decrease capacity in Asturias, Santander, Zaragoza, and the Canary Islands this winter.

These reductions form part of Ryanair's strategy to cut its capacity by 41% in the Spanish regions and by 10% in the Canary Islands this winter. Eddie Wilson, CEO of Ryanair, cautioned that this would result in "a loss of investment, connectivity, tourism, and employment in regional Spain, as many routes will be economically unviable."

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While much of the coverage has focused on the political row with Aena, the real issue for travellers is financial: when to book replacement flights.

New analysis from Dot Dot Loans suggests that, based on historic patterns, when low-cost carriers like Ryanair pull capacity, fares on affected routes typically rise by 20-30% within four to six weeks of an announcement. The analysis blames a drop in supply for the price rise.

"This creates a fare squeeze, where passengers waiting for ‘last-minute bargains’ end up paying much more," the firm noted in a statement this week.

Similar past closures, such as Ryanair's 2024 cuts in Germany in response to tax hikes, saw immediate 10-20% fare jumps on affected routes as inventory dried up. Competitors like easyJet or Vueling may absorb some demand, but initial scarcity often leads to short-term price spikes before stabilisation.

The analysis suggests that the price of tickets on affected routes for January could rise from their current £55-£60 price tag now to £80-£85 by October.

"In a cost-of-living crisis, where UK holiday budgets are already stretched by 3% inflation, waiting could add £50-£200 per ticket for a family of four, exacerbating financial pressure," the Dot Dot Loans statement continues.

"Passengers who secure alternatives early, whether through multi-airport searches (London “LON” instead of just Stansted) or by booking rail plus flight combos (for example, flying into Porto, then taking the train into Galicia), can lock in fares before the price spike. Waiting not only risks higher prices but also fewer seats on family-friendly dates like Christmas and New Year's.

"If your plans are flexible, waiting can yield deals as competitors could respond with promotions to capture Ryanair's market share, potentially dropping fares by 10-15% in the short term. Off-peak travel is less affected, and last-minute sales could emerge if demand softens. Ultimately, the decision depends on your risk tolerance: book now for certainty if dates are fixed, or monitor if you're adaptable."

The cost of plane ticket prices jumped significantly this summer. ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said the "hefty" increase of 30.2% in air fares between June and July was the biggest jump for that period since the collection of monthly data began in 2001. The increase came mainly from mainland European air fares, rather than domestic or long-haul trips.