Regions where cancer cases set to soar as over 6m diagnoses expected by 2040

Over six million new cancercases could be diagnosed in England by the end of 2040, charities have warned.

The analysis comes from One Cancer Voice, a coalition of 60 charities which is calling on the government to set a new earlier diagnosis target. It also wants the introduction of strong prevention policies to ensure England is a world leader in tackling cancer in future years.

From the beginning of 2025 to the end of 2040 there will be around 6.3 million cancer cases, new figures suggest. The South East could see the biggest rise in diagnoses – with over one million cases, the analysis says.

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This is followed by the North West, with 865,000 cases, the East of England and the South West with 722,000, and London with 714,000. Cases of some of the most common cancers are expected to reach record highs, the analysis also found.

There could be more than one million cases of prostate cancer diagnosed, as well as 906,000 cases of breast cancer and 821,000 cases of lung cancer, the coalition says. Though survival rates have significantly improved since the 1970s, rising cases could put more pressure on an already overstretched health service, the charities warn.

Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK and One Cancer Voice representative, said: "Nearly one in two of us will be diagnosed with cancer in our lifetime - everyone will be impacted by the disease, whether they receive a diagnosis themselves, or have a friend, family member or loved one who does."

In February, the Department of Health and Social Care launched a call for evidence to help shape a national cancer plan. The blueprint is expected to be published later this year, with Ms Mitchell saying it could be a “defining moment”.

The coalition has called for the plan to meet six "tests" to make England a world-leader in cancer care. They include a pledge to meet all cancer waiting times by the end of Parliament in 2029 and a new earlier diagnosis target, with improved screening programmes.

The coalition also wants the introduction of strong cancer prevention policies and for inequalities in patient care to be addressed. Meanwhile, it wants improved access to clinical trials for cancer patients and better support for people to live well with and beyond cancer.

Ms Mitchell added: "The National Cancer Plan for England could be a defining moment. If the UK Government delivers an ambitious fully funded strategy, we could save more lives and transform cancer outcomes, propelling England from world lagging to among world leading when it comes to tackling this disease.

"Meeting these six tests will show how serious the UK Government is about improving cancer outcomes. We've seen progress before - now is the time to act again and make a difference for cancer patients."

Professor Sir Mike Richards, former national cancer director at the Department of Health and chairman of the National Screening Committee, said: "Our previous NHS Cancer Plan was instrumental in improving cancer outcomes, and this one gives us a huge opportunity to make England one of the best countries in the world for cancer survival. But to make this happen it's essential that the plan has consistent funding, so that the changes we know will save lives from cancer are able to be introduced. This will save money in the long term and ensure a better future for generations to come."

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “This government is prioritising cancer care as we turn around more than a decade of neglect of our NHS. We’re already making an impact, with 95,000 more people having cancer diagnosed or ruled out within 28 days between July 2024 and May 2025, compared to the same period the previous year. This will soon be supported by our new National Cancer Plan, setting out how cancer care will improve over the coming years. We’re also making it easier for people to get tests, checks and scans with DIY screening kits for cervical cancer, new radiotherapy machines in every region, and by creating the first smoke-free generation.”