'Trump faces his wiliest opponent in Putin, and will only come out on top by accident'

A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin could be the beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine. But sadly it is unlikely. Weak and easily-charmed Trump will, if it goes ahead, face the most politically ill-meaning, wily, manipulative and dishonest foe he has encountered.

Former KGB officer Putin has all the manipulation and persuasion tools of his trade in his locker and will deploy them to try and chicane his way around agreeing a total ceasefire in Ukraine. He will be tough and charming, while not giving an inch, being vague about the future and trying for the Russian audience subtly to project contempt.

Like any trained intelligence officer he will prepare for the meeting meticulously, practising for every twist and turn, while Trump will believe wrongly that his real estate deal-making skills will win the day. Which almost certainly they will not.

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Bungling Trump may emerge from the meeting delighted, believing he has achieved something with his so-called ‘friend Vladimir’ - and then it may dawn on him that it was meaningless.

To Putin, Trump is an arch enemy, somebody to be dominated and beaten, but for some reason Trump has been persuaded rather pathetically that they are friends. However, Putin has just one weakness.

He believes, wrongly in the view of many, that he is winning the war and that Ukraine is on the back foot. His people are not telling him the truth about what is really happening. Russian advances in Ukraine are glacial and at this rate it would take generations for them to dominate Ukraine. Kyiv’s forces are actually achieving tangible results, hitting Russia’s military infrastructure and energy supplies almost daily.

Russia’s biggest results appear to be the killing and maiming of civilians, depraved attacks which have no strategic value beyond hitting population morale. It really matters for Putin that he persuades Trump not to issue crippling sanctions on Russia - but he will pull out every trick in the book to give nothing and take as much as he can.

And then, it is what happens after the meeting that is important. For the Russians the response will likely be carefully choreographed, perhaps indicating a new friendship with the US while isolating Europe and Ukraine.

It is important for the West that Trump picks up on any hint of duplicity or contempt and reacts strongly to it - then for once his legendary thin skin may coincidentally have its uses. And slapping sanctions on Russia as the war continues may happen after all. If Trump comes out on top of this I am sure it will be by accident.

The truth is that this summit is likely to be all show and no substance, put on for the two men's own benefit and aimed at their domestic audiences. Meanwhile Ukrainians are dying from Russia's nightly strikes and another cold winter is on the way.

While shaking hands with Donald Trump, again if it even goes ahead, Putin will be imagining more awful and cruel ways in which to hit Ukraine's civilians, such as smashing their heating and energy systems.