Keir Starmer hanging by a thread - no margin for error on Donald Trump visit

Donald Trump made history this week by becoming the first US President to make a second state visit to the UK - a fact I'm sure pleases him greatly. Yes, this unprecedented honour is a huge ego boost and, as far as No10 goes, a stroke of diplomatic genius. But for Keir Starmer, whose premiership is not long for this world, there's a lot at stake. He knows a betting man wouldn't put the house on his lasting past next summer.

Such is the comedy of errors his leadership has become that no one sees any good news for the Government he's (barely) running. The country is staring down the barrel of a deeply unpopular tax-busting budget come November - alongside all the things that are going wrong; the economy, small boats, and creaking public services to name but a few. And who can forget Starmer's increasingly shrinking band of loyalists, following the departure of Angela Rayner, Peter Mandelson and special adviser Paul Ovenden, forced to resign over mortifyingly offensive messages about Diane Abbott.

Yet, believe it or not, all is not lost. There is still much to play for - and this visit is a huge opportunity for the Government. If Starmer has any political sense, he will treat Trump's arrival as more than just a photo opportunity. The task is straightforward: keep the noisy student activists (including our own London mayor) at bay, steer clear of sideshows like Epstein, and secure commitments from Washington that actually matter.

He has the President's love for the Royal Family to be grateful for - in that respect, we know Trump will try to be on his best behaviour. And let the pageantry do the rest - from the Windsor Castle banquet to the military fanfare.

I'm sure after this that the Royals will face unbecoming republican murmurings from Westminster insiders, despite all of us being in the King's debt for sparing Britain a Trump-shaped humiliation.

Yet, no amount of bunting can disguise the real domestic problem: Sadiq Khan. Earlier this week the Mayor penned a newspaper column - less an intervention than a vendetta, portraying Trump as the embodiment of racism, xenophobia and far-right populism.

That caricature may play well in certain circles, but it ignores awkward facts. Trump's coalition is broader than his critics admit - he dominated among white voters, yes, but he also attracted nearly half of Latinos and a sizeable share of Asian Americans.

His success has been built on a patriotic, working-class appeal that cuts across racial and religious divides. It is precisely the sort of coalition Labour has spent years chasing but never achieved. Khan's comments about last weekend's "Unite the Kingdom" rally were equally disingenuous.

By branding it a far-right march, he lumped in tens of thousands of ordinary attendees - some from ethnic minority backgrounds - who simply worry about the effects of mass immigration. Yes, Tommy Robinson and other professional agitators were present. But to smear every participant as an extremist is unfair, lazy politics.

And all this from a mayor who presides over a city beset by violent crime, unaffordable housing, punitive taxes and collapsing services. London has become increasingly unliveable on his watch, yet Khan is the highest-paid politician in Britain. If he wants to see a divisive figure uninterested in cohesion, he need only look in the mirror.

Beyond personalities, the hard reality is trade. Starmer promised British steel would enjoy "zero tariffs" in the US. The truth is more embarrassing: only a limited quota escapes levies, while the rest face a 25% duty. That is still crippling for an industry already struggling under some of the highest energy prices in the world.

A genuine breakthrough here would have made the UK more competitive in the US market. Instead, taxpayers are left propping up loss-making giants like British Steel and Liberty Steel, with no private buyers in sight. A better deal from Washington could have eased that burden. As for foreign policy, the choreography is set: agreements on nuclear and technology cooperation will be unveiled with due ceremony.

But Trump is not a man who sticks rigidly to scripts. A stray remark about Palestine, Russia, or immigration could undo weeks of careful planning in seconds. That is the danger of cultivating "uncritical intimacy" with such a volatile ally.

And yet, Britain has no real choice. Our economy and security are bound to America's, more so after Brexit. Unlike France's President Macron, we cannot afford to grandstand. Starmer's job is to manage the relationship quietly, effectively and without self-indulgence.

Which is why this visit matters so much. It is a rare chance for the PM to claw back authority, project competence and win something tangible for Britain. With his premiership already hanging by a thread, the margin for error is non-existent.