NEW DELHI: After nearly two decades at the helm, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar faces perhaps his toughest political test yet. Once celebrated as "Sushashan babu" - the man credited with transforming Bihar after the Lalu-Rabri era, often dubbed as "jungle raj" by many - Nitish now confronts growing fatigue and skepticism. But could Prime Minister Narendra Modi's name help him weather the storm this time?
The anti-incumbency dilemma
Nitish Kumar has ruled Bihar for close to 20 years, deftly switching alliances to retain power. But two decades of governance have brought inevitable voter fatigue. Once seen as the face of development and order, Nitish now encounters an electorate that wants renewal and energy.
Still, for many voters, there's no clear alternative. The BJP's national dominance and PM Modi's enduring popularity remain the NDA 's strongest assets -- potentially offsetting Nitish's declining appeal.
The end of the 'big brother' era
For years, Nitish Kumar played the "big brother" in his alliance with the BJP, often dictating terms. This time, however, the power dynamic has shifted. The BJP, under Modi's leadership, negotiated an equal seat share with the JD(U) -- 101 seats each.
Despite the symbolic parity, JD(U) appears to have lost the leverage it once enjoyed. In Bihar's political arithmetic, Nitish may now be the junior partner in spirit, even if not on paper.
Health and leadership concerns
Nitish's recent public missteps and occasional incoherent moments have sparked debate about his health and alertness. Opposition parties have seized on these to question his fitness for leadership. While this might unsettle some voters, others may see the BJP's strength under Modi as a stabilising force.
With the saffron party holding just one seat fewer than the RJD in the assembly and commanding the legislative council, many in Bihar may still lean toward the NDA for continuity and governance stability.
Losing ground, finding support
Nitish has long built his image as a political survivor -- switching sides between the RJD and BJP when necessary. But this time, anti-incumbency could bite harder. The JD(U) risks losing seats even as it clings to relevance through its partnership with the BJP.
In many constituencies, it may be Modi's brand -- not Nitish's -- that draws votes. The BJP’s expanding base and PM Modi’s personal charisma could end up being the decisive factors keeping Nitish in power.
The economic paradox
Despite Nitish's two decades in office, Bihar continues to lag in GDP, income, and industrial growth. The "Sushashan" image no longer matches the state's economic reality. Yet, the BJP hopes that PM Modi's national narrative -- of India as the "world’s fourth-largest economy" -- will overshadow local discontent.
Promises of investment, jobs, and infrastructure from the Prime Minister could shift focus from Nitish's mixed record to PM Modi's larger vision of development.
Declining popularity
Nitish's political capital has clearly diminished. His approval ratings as preferred chief minister have slipped from 37% in 2020 to between 16% and 25% in recent surveys (C-Voter, VoteVibe). The JD(U)'s assembly strength has also fallen sharply -- from 115 seats in 2010 to just 43 in 2020, alongside a significant drop in vote share from 22.6% to 15.7%.
The once-dominant leader now finds himself dependent on Modi’s popularity to remain relevant in Bihar’s shifting political landscape.
The youth factor
The BJP lacks a strong state-level leader in Bihar but is investing in younger faces -- such as Chirag Paswan and deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary, to connect with first-time and young voters. This youth outreach, combined with PM Modi's mass appeal, may indirectly aid Nitish by broadening the NDA's base against younger rivals like Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor.
The BJP's campaign pitch merges Modi's leadership, Nitish's experience, and youthful energy into a single message of stability and progress.
Operation Sindoor: Modi's national moment
After a decisive military action against Pakistan and its sponsored terrorism under his government's orders, Prime Minister Modi struck a confident tone during a rally in Bihar's Madhubani -- just days after the Pahalgam terror attack.
"Those who have carried out this terrorist attack, and those who have supported and planned it, will face a punishment greater than they can imagine. We will not rest until justice is done," PM Modi said.
"From the soil of Bihar, I want to send a message to the entire world — India will identify, trace, and punish every terrorist and their backers. Terrorism will not go unpunished."
From the land of Buddha, PM Modi invoked the spirit of Yuddha -- turning Bihar's rally ground into a symbol of national resolve. For voters, this mix of nationalism and leadership may resonate more strongly than local issues.
The balancing act
Nitish Kumar may no longer command the authority or popularity he once did, but his political instincts remain sharp. His partnership with Modi's BJP offers him a final lifeline -- a blend of national leadership and local continuity.
In the end, if Nitish does manage to retain power, it may not be through his own enduring appeal, but through the strength of the Modi factor -- once again redefining Bihar’s political balance.
The anti-incumbency dilemma
Nitish Kumar has ruled Bihar for close to 20 years, deftly switching alliances to retain power. But two decades of governance have brought inevitable voter fatigue. Once seen as the face of development and order, Nitish now encounters an electorate that wants renewal and energy.
Still, for many voters, there's no clear alternative. The BJP's national dominance and PM Modi's enduring popularity remain the NDA 's strongest assets -- potentially offsetting Nitish's declining appeal.
The end of the 'big brother' era
For years, Nitish Kumar played the "big brother" in his alliance with the BJP, often dictating terms. This time, however, the power dynamic has shifted. The BJP, under Modi's leadership, negotiated an equal seat share with the JD(U) -- 101 seats each.
Despite the symbolic parity, JD(U) appears to have lost the leverage it once enjoyed. In Bihar's political arithmetic, Nitish may now be the junior partner in spirit, even if not on paper.
Health and leadership concerns
Nitish's recent public missteps and occasional incoherent moments have sparked debate about his health and alertness. Opposition parties have seized on these to question his fitness for leadership. While this might unsettle some voters, others may see the BJP's strength under Modi as a stabilising force.
With the saffron party holding just one seat fewer than the RJD in the assembly and commanding the legislative council, many in Bihar may still lean toward the NDA for continuity and governance stability.
Losing ground, finding support
Nitish has long built his image as a political survivor -- switching sides between the RJD and BJP when necessary. But this time, anti-incumbency could bite harder. The JD(U) risks losing seats even as it clings to relevance through its partnership with the BJP.
In many constituencies, it may be Modi's brand -- not Nitish's -- that draws votes. The BJP’s expanding base and PM Modi’s personal charisma could end up being the decisive factors keeping Nitish in power.
The economic paradox
Despite Nitish's two decades in office, Bihar continues to lag in GDP, income, and industrial growth. The "Sushashan" image no longer matches the state's economic reality. Yet, the BJP hopes that PM Modi's national narrative -- of India as the "world’s fourth-largest economy" -- will overshadow local discontent.
Promises of investment, jobs, and infrastructure from the Prime Minister could shift focus from Nitish's mixed record to PM Modi's larger vision of development.
Declining popularity
Nitish's political capital has clearly diminished. His approval ratings as preferred chief minister have slipped from 37% in 2020 to between 16% and 25% in recent surveys (C-Voter, VoteVibe). The JD(U)'s assembly strength has also fallen sharply -- from 115 seats in 2010 to just 43 in 2020, alongside a significant drop in vote share from 22.6% to 15.7%.
The once-dominant leader now finds himself dependent on Modi’s popularity to remain relevant in Bihar’s shifting political landscape.
The youth factor
The BJP lacks a strong state-level leader in Bihar but is investing in younger faces -- such as Chirag Paswan and deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary, to connect with first-time and young voters. This youth outreach, combined with PM Modi's mass appeal, may indirectly aid Nitish by broadening the NDA's base against younger rivals like Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor.
The BJP's campaign pitch merges Modi's leadership, Nitish's experience, and youthful energy into a single message of stability and progress.
Operation Sindoor: Modi's national moment
After a decisive military action against Pakistan and its sponsored terrorism under his government's orders, Prime Minister Modi struck a confident tone during a rally in Bihar's Madhubani -- just days after the Pahalgam terror attack.
"Those who have carried out this terrorist attack, and those who have supported and planned it, will face a punishment greater than they can imagine. We will not rest until justice is done," PM Modi said.
"From the soil of Bihar, I want to send a message to the entire world — India will identify, trace, and punish every terrorist and their backers. Terrorism will not go unpunished."
From the land of Buddha, PM Modi invoked the spirit of Yuddha -- turning Bihar's rally ground into a symbol of national resolve. For voters, this mix of nationalism and leadership may resonate more strongly than local issues.
The balancing act
Nitish Kumar may no longer command the authority or popularity he once did, but his political instincts remain sharp. His partnership with Modi's BJP offers him a final lifeline -- a blend of national leadership and local continuity.
In the end, if Nitish does manage to retain power, it may not be through his own enduring appeal, but through the strength of the Modi factor -- once again redefining Bihar’s political balance.
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